Warning: This dashboard was not built by an epidemiologist.

Based on data up to: 2020-07-09. Compared to (10 days before): 2020-06-29

Transmission rate:

Note: "transmission rate" here is a measure of speed of spread of infection, and means how much of the susceptible population each infected person is infecting per day (if everyone is susceptible). E.g. 10% means that 100 infected patients will infect 10 new people per day. Related to R0. See Methodology for details of calculation.

⭕ Bad news: new waves 🇿🇲 🇹🇳 🇩🇯 🇪🇹 🇱🇾 🇲🇬 🇵🇭 🇬🇳 🇬🇷 🇭🇺 🇨🇺

Large increase in transmission rate vs. 10 days ago, that might mean a relapse, new wave, worsening outbreak.

  • Countries are sorted by size of change in transmission rate.
  • Includes only countries that were previously active (more than 100 estimated new cases).
  • "Large increase" = at least +2% change.
Current:
Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 10 days ago:
Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 Estimated
recent cases
in last 5 days		 Estimated
current
ICU need
per 100k
population		 Estimated
total
affected
population
percentage
🇿🇲 Zambia 11.9% 4.1% 3,724 0.02 0.2%
🇹🇳 Tunisia 9.0% 2.9% 314 0.02 0.1%
🇩🇯 Djibouti 6.5% 0.6% 556 1.01 1.7%
🇪🇹 Ethiopia 9.5% 5.3% 8,952 0.03 0.1%
🇱🇾 Libya 10.5% 6.4% 3,405 0.19 0.2%
🇲🇬 Madagascar 11.1% 7.2% 4,833 0.09 0.1%
🇵🇭 Philippines 9.6% 6.3% 64,269 0.35 0.4%
🇬🇳 Guinea 5.5% 2.9% 834 0.08 0.1%
🇬🇷 Greece 7.0% 4.6% 629 0.25 0.1%
🇭🇺 Hungary 4.6% 2.5% 454 0.09 0.5%
🇨🇺 Cuba 4.1% 2.1% 113 0.06 0.1%

Tip: Click country name in legend to switch countries. Uze mouse wheel to zoom Y axis.

🟢 Good news: slowing waves 🇵🇾 🇭🇷 🇨🇿 🇵🇸 🇧🇫 🇬🇼 🇳🇵 🇭🇳 🇪🇨 🇲🇱 🇲🇷 🇨🇫 🇨🇻 🇲🇦 🇭🇹 🇦🇲

Large decrease in transmission rate vs. 10 days ago, that might mean a slowing down / effective control measures.

  • Countries are sorted by size of change in transmission rate.
  • Includes only countries that were previously active (more than 100 estimated new cases).
  • "Large decrease" = at least -2% change.
Current:
Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 10 days ago:
Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 Estimated
recent cases
in last 5 days		 Estimated
current
ICU need
per 100k
population		 Estimated
total
affected
population
percentage
🇵🇾 Paraguay 4.7% 15.7% 426 0.29 0.1%
🇭🇷 Croatia 6.8% 14.9% 849 1.24 0.3%
🇨🇿 Czechia 4.0% 10.1% 1,027 1.02 0.3%
🇵🇸 West Bank and Gaza 8.1% 14.0% 2,998 0.84 0.3%
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso 3.6% 8.8% 502 0.00 0.1%
🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau 1.6% 6.5% 178 0.14 0.6%
🇳🇵 Nepal 2.6% 6.5% 747 0.44 0.1%
🇭🇳 Honduras 5.3% 8.9% 22,240 2.08 2.5%
🇪🇨 Ecuador 3.8% 7.0% 36,167 1.77 5.9%
🇲🇱 Mali 2.5% 5.7% 1,088 0.02 0.3%
🇲🇷 Mauritania 2.5% 5.6% 3,040 0.52 1.4%
🇨🇫 CAR (Africa) 3.0% 6.0% 1,478 0.29 0.6%
🇨🇻 Cabo Verde 4.0% 6.8% 378 1.91 1.1%
🇲🇦 Morocco 5.2% 7.4% 3,144 0.28 0.2%
🇭🇹 Haiti 2.0% 4.1% 851 0.24 0.3%
🇦🇲 Armenia 4.5% 6.5% 4,697 11.62 2.8%

Tip: Click country name in legend to switch countries. Uze mouse wheel to zoom Y axis.

ICU need

⭕ Bad news: higher ICU need 🇰🇿 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇱🇺 🇵🇦 🇿🇦 🇧🇦 🇨🇷 🇧🇷 🇷🇸 🇦🇷 🇴🇲 🇧🇴 🇧🇬 🇩🇴 🇨🇴 🇰🇬 🇭🇷

Large increases in need for ICU beds per 100k population vs. 10 days ago.

  • Only countries for which the ICU need increased by more than 0.5 (per 100k).
Current:
Estimated
ICU need
per 100k
population		 10 days ago:
Estimated
ICU need
per 100k
population		 Estimated
recent cases
in last 5 days		 Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 Estimated
total
affected
population
percentage
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan 4.29 1.03 7,093 4.5% 0.3%
🇺🇸 US 10.70 7.74 1,120,630 6.8% 4.7%
🇮🇱 Israel 4.94 2.11 8,525 9.1% 0.7%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg 3.68 1.43 538 8.5% 2.1%
🇵🇦 Panama 9.68 8.08 16,687 6.5% 4.1%
🇿🇦 South Africa 3.95 2.40 233,274 8.2% 2.4%
🇧🇦 Bosnia 3.59 2.07 4,816 9.6% 0.8%
🇨🇷 Costa Rica 2.38 0.98 1,489 10.8% 0.1%
🇧🇷 Brazil 8.82 7.65 1,113,860 5.4% 6.2%
🇷🇸 Serbia 2.23 1.23 2,661 7.0% 0.4%
🇦🇷 Argentina 3.12 2.31 44,708 7.0% 0.7%
🇴🇲 Oman 5.07 4.29 11,490 6.0% 2.2%
🇧🇴 Bolivia 3.68 2.91 44,481 6.3% 3.6%
🇧🇬 Bulgaria 2.05 1.29 3,784 7.8% 0.4%
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic 2.95 2.20 16,092 6.5% 1.8%
🇨🇴 Colombia 3.09 2.42 116,936 6.4% 2.0%
🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan 1.36 0.74 9,989 9.0% 0.8%
🇭🇷 Croatia 1.24 0.66 849 6.8% 0.3%

Tip: Click country name in legend to switch countries. Uze mouse wheel to zoom Y axis.

🟢 Good news: lower ICU need 🇨🇱 🇶🇦 🇧🇾 🇸🇪 🇸🇬

Large decreases in need for ICU beds per 100k population vs. 10 days ago.

  • Only countries for which the ICU need decreased by more than 0.5 (per 100k).
Current:
Estimated
ICU need
per 100k
population		 10 days ago:
Estimated
ICU need
per 100k
population		 Estimated
recent cases
in last 5 days		 Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 Estimated
total
affected
population
percentage
🇨🇱 Chile 15.34 19.99 32,330 3.2% 4.9%
🇶🇦 Qatar 7.46 9.53 2,311 2.9% 3.6%
🇧🇾 Belarus 3.91 5.52 857 2.3% 0.7%
🇸🇪 Sweden 8.67 10.18 18,962 3.3% 4.8%
🇸🇬 Singapore 2.89 3.66 623 2.9% 0.8%

Tip: Click country name in legend to switch countries. Uze mouse wheel to zoom Y axis.

New cases and deaths:

⭕ Bad news: new first significant outbreaks 🇦🇴 🇲🇪 🇲🇿 🇨🇾

Countries that have started their first significant outbreak (crossed 1000 total reported cases or 20 deaths) vs. 10 days ago.

Current:
Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 10 days ago:
Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 Estimated
recent cases
in last 5 days		 Estimated
current
ICU need
per 100k
population		 Estimated
total
affected
population
percentage
🇦🇴 Angola 5.3% - 1,913 0.00 0.0%
Eswatini 9.8% - 1,630 0.64 0.8%
🇲🇪 Montenegro 11.6% - 836 3.94 0.6%
🇲🇿 Mozambique 5.9% - 523 0.01 0.0%
🇨🇾 Cyprus 4.7% - 16 0.10 0.2%

Tip: Click country name in legend to switch countries. Uze mouse wheel to zoom Y axis.

🟢 Good news: no new cases or deaths

New countries with no new cases or deaths vs. 10 days ago.

  • Only considering countries that had at least 1000 estimated total cases and at least 10 total deaths and had an active outbreak previously.
Estimated
total
cases		 Total
reported
deaths		 Date
of last
reported case		 Date
of last
reported death

Tip: Click country name in legend to switch countries. Uze mouse wheel to zoom Y axis.

Mixed news: no new deaths, only new cases 🇨🇳 🇸🇬 🇱🇺 🇧🇫 🇸🇮 🇹🇳 🇸🇰 🇨🇺 🇱🇰 🇱🇻 🇲🇾 🇪🇪 🇹🇩 🇹🇭 🇳🇿

New countries with no new deaths (only new cases) vs. 10 days ago.

  • Only considering countries that had at least 1000 estimated total cases and at least 10 total deaths and had an active outbreak previously.
Current:
Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 10 days ago:
Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 Estimated
recent cases
in last 5 days		 Estimated
current
ICU need
per 100k
population		 Estimated
total
affected
population
percentage
🇨🇳 China 5.4% 4.1% 881 0.00 0.0%
🇸🇬 Singapore 2.9% 3.2% 623 2.89 0.8%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg 8.5% 10.4% 538 3.68 2.1%
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso 3.6% 8.8% 502 0.00 0.1%
🇸🇮 Slovenia 8.0% 8.8% 425 0.61 0.5%
🇹🇳 Tunisia 9.0% 2.9% 314 0.02 0.1%
🇸🇰 Slovakia 8.0% 8.4% 152 0.20 0.1%
🇨🇺 Cuba 4.1% 2.1% 113 0.06 0.1%
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka 5.8% 2.3% 78 0.04 0.0%
🇱🇻 Latvia 10.3% 2.5% 65 0.17 0.1%
🇲🇾 Malaysia 1.5% 1.4% 58 0.02 0.1%
🇪🇪 Estonia 5.9% 1.1% 51 0.23 0.4%
🇹🇩 Chad 0.7% 1.3% 44 0.00 0.2%
🇹🇭 Thailand 4.6% 2.9% 26 0.00 0.0%
🇳🇿 New Zealand 5.8% 6.2% 12 0.02 0.0%

Tip: Click country name in legend to switch countries. Uze mouse wheel to zoom Y axis.

No news: continously inactive countries 🇹🇿

Countries that had no new cases or deaths 10 days ago or now.

  • Only considering countries that had at least 1000 estimated total cases and at least 10 total deaths.
  • Caveat:these countries may have stopped reporting data like Tanzania.
Estimated
total
cases		 Total
reported
deaths		 Date
of last
reported case		 Date
of last
reported death
🇹🇿 Tanzania 10,215 21 2020-05-08 2020-05-08

Tip: Click country name in legend to switch countries. Uze mouse wheel to zoom Y axis.

Deaths burden:

⭕ Bad news: higher death burden 🇿🇦 🇰🇬

Countries with significantly higher recent death burden per 100k population vs. 10 days ago.

  • "Significantly higher" = 100% more.
  • Only considering countries that had at least 10 recent deaths in both timeframes, and death burden of at least 0.1 per 100k.
Current:
5 day
death
burden
per 100k		 10 days ago:
5 day
death
burden
per 100k		 New
reported deaths
since 10
days ago		 Estimated
current
ICU need
per 100k
population		 Estimated
total
affected
population
percentage
🇿🇦 South Africa 0.88 0.40 1191 3.9 2.4%
🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan 0.52 0.21 65 1.4 0.8%

🟢 Good news: lower death burden

Countries with significantly lower recent death burden per 100k population vs. 10 days ago.

  • "Significantly lower" = 50% less
  • Only considering countries that had at least 10 recent deaths in both timeframes, and death burden of at least 0.1 per 100k.
Current:
5 day
death
burden
per 100k		 10 days ago:
5 day
death
burden
per 100k		 New
reported deaths
since 10
days ago		 Estimated
current
ICU need
per 100k
population		 Estimated
total
affected
population
percentage

Appendix:

Note: For interactive map, per country details, projections, and modeling methodology see Projections of ICU need by Country dashboard

Warning: the visualisation below contains the results of a predictive model that was not built by an epidemiologist.

Future model projections plots per country

For countries in any of the above groups.

Tip: Choose country from the drop-down below the graph.

Future World projections (all countries stacked)

The outputs of the models for all countries in stacked plots.

Tip: Hover the mouse of the area to see which country is which and the countries S/I/R ratios at that point.
Tip: The plots are zoomable and draggable.

World total estimated actively infected

World total estimated recovered or dead

Methodology

  • I'm not an epidemiologist.
  • Tranmission rates calculation:
    • Case growth rate is calculated over the 5 past days.
    • Confidence bounds are calculated by from the weighted standard deviation of the growth rate over the last 5 days. Countries with highly noisy transmission rates are exluded from tranmission rate change tables ("new waves", "slowing waves").
    • Tranmission rate is calculated from cases growth rate by estimating the actively infected population change relative to the susceptible population.
  • Recovery rate (for estimating actively infected):
    • Where the rate estimated from Total Outstanding Cases is too high (on down-slopes) recovery probability if 1/20 is used (equivalent 20 days to recover).
  • Total cases are estimated from the reported deaths for each country:
    • Each country has different testing policy and capacity and cases are under-reported in some countries. Using an estimated IFR (fatality rate) we can estimate the number of cases some time ago by using the total deaths until today. We can than use this estimation to estimate the testing bias and multiply the current reported case numbers by that.
    • IFRs for each country is estimated using the age IFRs from May 1 New York paper and UN demographic data for 2020. These IFRs can be found in df['age_adjusted_ifr'] column. Some examples: US - 0.98%, UK - 1.1%, Qatar - 0.25%, Italy - 1.4%, Japan - 1.6%.
    • The average fatality lag is assumed to be 8 days on average for a case to go from being confirmed positive (after incubation + testing lag) to death. This is the same figure used by "Estimating The Infected Population From Deaths".
    • Testing bias: the actual lagged fatality rate is than divided by the IFR to estimate the testing bias in a country. The estimated testing bias then multiplies the reported case numbers to estimate the true case numbers (=case numbers if testing coverage was as comprehensive as in the heavily tested countries).
  • ICU need is calculated and age-adjusted as follows:
    • UK ICU ratio was reported as 4.4% of active reported cases.
    • Using UKs ICU ratio and IFRs corrected for age demographics we can estimate each country's ICU ratio (the number of cases requiring ICU hospitalisation). For example using the IFR ratio between UK and Qatar to devide UK's 4.4% we get an ICU ratio of around 1% for Qatar which is also the ratio they report to WHO here.
    • The ICU need is calculated from reported cases rather than from total estimated active cases. This is because the ICU ratio (4.4%) is based on reported cases.